Engine state
Paper operation overview
Observed paper outcomes and operating facts only. Unproven edge remains explicitly labeled.
Capital gate
LOADINGChecking evidence, risk, accounting, and reconciliation controls.
No NAV observationsPerformance statistics remain unavailable until they are supported by recorded history.
Portfolio value
NAV
Loss from peak
Drawdown
Performance attribution
P&L components
Venue and feed state
Market health
| Market / venue | Status | Freshness | Latency | Message |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading market health… | ||||
Strategy status
Strategy health
| Strategy | State | Recent signal | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading strategy health… | |||
Fifteen research classifications
Strategy groupings
Each desk shows its real runtime state, data depth, research inventory, capital, and evidence posture.
One audited stream
Activity
Current events, alpha opportunities, orders, fills, positions, and worker cycles in one place.
Latest useful records
Engine activity
0
| Time | Type | Activity | Group | Market | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading activity… | |||||
Event relationships
Events
Point-in-time probabilities, cross-market disagreement, and verified relationships.
Active event set
Events
| Event | Latest update | Resolution | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Loading events… | |||
No event selected
No event data
Select a recorded event to inspect the probabilities known at that time.
Prediction market—
Reference estimate—
Difference—
Confidence—
Related markets
Data state
- Freshness
- —
- Settlement source
- —
Cross-market comparison
Probability differences
| Event | Source A | Source B | Difference | Costs + uncertainty | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No probability differences loaded. | |||||
Market data
Markets
Tradable quotes are shown separately from reference values and model estimates.
Spread-aware inventory control
Kalshi position lifecycle
| Position / desk | Action | Side / contracts | Executable bid / ask | Entry / fair | Remaining / add edge | Unrealized P&L | Order | Reason / time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No position lifecycle decisions recorded yet. | ||||||||
Decision-bound execution
Selective Kalshi trades
| Contract / desk | Fair / Kalshi | Gross / net edge | Confidence / model | Settlement / sources | Filled / admitted | P&L / realized edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading selective trades… | |||||||
Default-deny audit trail
Kalshi rejection ledger
| Market | Desk | Tier | Model | Data quality | Why rejected | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading rejection ledger… | ||||||
Rejected decision
No rejected market selected
Select a rejection to inspect every failed gate.
Rejection reasons
Deterministic gates
Decision economics
Latest quotes
All markets
| Instrument | Class | Venue | Bid | Ask | Last | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading markets… | ||||||
Prediction contracts
Prediction markets
| Contract | YES bid / ask | NO bid / ask | Depth | Market probability | Reference probability | Difference | Fee | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No prediction-market records loaded. | ||||||||
Rule-based checks
Contract consistency
| Contract family | Rule | Orders | Gross difference | Estimated costs | Depth | Multi-order risk | Rule check | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No verified candidates recorded. | ||||||||
After costs and risk
Trade candidates
A research idea can result in no trade when costs or risk are too high.
Decision ledger
Evaluated opportunities
Every complete candidate, near miss, rejection, and abstention is shown.| Hypothesis | Strategy | Net expected alpha | Confidence | Expected duration / decay | Selected market | Costs + slippage | Available size | Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading trade candidates… | ||||||||
Independent limits
Risk controls
Forecast models cannot disable limits, checks, or kill switches.
Pre-trade and runtime checks
Recent risk checks
| Time | Scope | Guard | Decision | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No risk decisions recorded. | ||||
Emergency controls
Kill switches
| Scope | State | Reason | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| No kill-switch records loaded. | |||
Position exposure
Current positions
| Instrument | Class | Strategy / event | Quantity | Market value | Gross risk | Unrealized P&L | Freshness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No positions recorded. | |||||||
Orders and costs
Execution and cost analysis
Decision, arrival, fill, and post-fill prices are recorded separately.
Recorded costs
Transaction costs
Price movement after fills
Later price change
Complete venue history
Orders
| Order time | Instrument | Side / quantity | Style | Expected return | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No paper orders have been recorded yet. | |||||
Actual or simulated
Fills
| Fill time | Instrument | Price | Quantity | Fee | Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No fills recorded. | |||||
Research records
Research & data
Experiments, forecast checks, source history, and data freshness are shown together.
Capital gate
Launch readiness
Waiting for the deterministic evidence, risk, accounting, and reconciliation audit.
Probability quality
Calibration reliability
Runtime settings
Configuration
- Mode
- Loading…
Strategy catalog
Strategies
| Strategy | Type | Reason | Horizon | Baseline | Required result | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading strategy catalog… | ||||||
Evidence registry
Research sources
0
| Source | Kind / domain | Evidence | Implementation | Data | Validation | Caveat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import the research catalogs to populate this registry. | ||||||
Experiment history
Experiments & backtests
| Hypothesis / strategy | Train / validation / test | Model | Costs | Metrics | Status | Commit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No experiments recorded. | ||||||
Data sources
Data freshness
| Source / dataset | Domain | Latest publication | Latest ingestion | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data-source records loaded. | ||||
Validation checks
Data quality
| Dataset | Check | State | Detail | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No data-quality records loaded. | ||||